Tag Archives: Ben Roethlisberger

NFL17 Cherry Picks W16: Gurley’s the Guy But Houseman MVP Meter Says It’s Brady’s To Lose

19 Dec

He’s been the most valuable player on the League’s best team in NFL 2017 and in the running for the AP – MVP award nearly every year since he first laced ‘em up in 2000. The man is quarterback Tom Brady of the New England Patriots.

— — —

No NFL’er has made a bold, season-long claim to the Associated Press’ coveted MVP award in this 2017 regular campaign but it’s always just arm’s reach away for that Q/RB who can, down the stretch, grab for the gusto and hold on tight.

TB’s the reigning Super champion quarterback and 2-time winner of the prized piece of personal hardware which today is probably a chunk o’ glass or some kinda’ metallic disaster? And while he’s not having his best statistical season in this his 17th (14g / 11-3: 67C%, 4163y, 28t-7i, 8.1ypa, 2gwd) it’s good enough to put him atop the MVP perch as this regular season enters its stretch run on just two games remaining before the playoffs burst upon the sporting scene.

Tom is no lock for the AP swag.

Brady’s big hurdle each season to take the big hardware is not stats nor W-L but that a GQ gestalt and sustained success breed resentment among the more namby-pamby votership. The San Mateo native hasn’t been in ten straight championship games like Otto Graham but his name has been bantered about for MVP in 15 of his 17 runs (+ 7 Supers). Awesome? Sure. More like epical.

Other names that make my short list of 2017 dark-horse candidates:

Coming as no surprise, it’s a ball-carrier in Rams 2nd-year man, Todd Gurley (14g / 10-4: 1187y, 17td (13r – 4c), 4.6ypc, 54c – 630y, 5fm) who poses the biggest challenge at W16 and may run off with the award if Tom trips-up.

If T&T both stumble, next on the trophy totem pole would be that contender-team QB in a group of four (4) that includes the Chiefs veteran Alex Smith (14g: 67.8C%, 3738y, 25-5, 8.0ypa, 3gwd, 34sk), the Lions’ Matthew Stafford (14g / 66C%, 3920y, 25-9, 7.8, 4gwd, 43sk), Rams’ Jared Goff and the Saints Drew Brees, who decides to separate himself from the rest of the passer pack.

As to Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers destined-for-Cantonization QB, had he converted 10 of his 14 interceptions into TDs (26), the Big guy’d be right up there on the perch of possibility with the Terrific guy (Tom).

And keep in mind that an MVP trophy is minted in offensive metal, meaning, run-backs and QBs are traditionally the target talents for receipt with the one, rare kicker selection in Washington’s Mark Moseley (82), such requiring an exceptional season performance in a field fairly thin of competitors. No man from the trenches yet (lineman). That’s gotta’ be some kind of sin, eh?

Be that as it may, if you don’t have a defender in the matterful mix, those men on the side of the field that proves oh-so important in crunch time when most stoppers and their headsetted mentors seem to come apart at the seams and ‘prevent’ NOBODY from scoring, then you can‘t consider yourself very well-informed and more importantly, a real football fan.

At this posting, 2017’s top-dogs of tackle are Zach Brown of the Washington Redskins, Blake Martinez of the Green Bay Packers and like sophomore Joe Schobert of the 0-14 Cleveland Browns, all who tally 127 total takedowns with the latter two tipping scales on pass-D and forced-fumble categories (Joe‘s 4th-year co-worker in Christian Kirksey has 124 total and 2 FFs, making one think Brownies should build on D-side first). Were any of the three to take trophy, they’d become only the 3rd defender to do so. Stoppers, like kickers & receivers, rarely get fair consideration from AP’ers, only the greatest in Alan Page (71) and Lawrence Taylor (86) having been tabbed for MVP immortality.

— — —

The biggest personal prize in professional football this side of the 49th parallel (CFL) is about momentum, early and on-going.

With two more games remaining in this NFL season, two more chances for players with MVP aspirations to prove their worth in the eyes of the AP, the obscure but finely calibrated John Houseman MVP Meter is pointing to Tom Brady as the most valuable and deserving player for the coveted prize, an awarding that would be the future Hall-of-Famer‘s third capture.

Be aware, this meter gauges the player who most deserves to MVP, not the man who ultimately receives the most AP votes. Sometimes casters are wrong.

Wondering what is the Houseman MVP Meter?

Houseman (b.1902 Bucharest – 1988) was a producer of theater (Federal / Mercury) and then films who later in life became an actor of note in supporting roles in such movies as ThePaperChase (73 Oscar®), ThreeDaysOfTheCondor and the classic sporting flick, Rollerball (75). But he may be best remembered for his SmithBarney TV ads uttering in his distinctive high-hat voice, “They earn money the old-fashioned way, they eaaaaaarn it.”

— — —

In spooning through the simmering statistical soup of NFL 2017 in search of the most serious of AP – MVP candidates, I came across these curiosities:

1) Surfing for the single-season record for most player tackles in an NFL season, a stat not kept until more recent times (90s) and still escaping me, I discovered this unrelated yet grand mark: Cleveland’s great QB, Otto Graham, competed in TEN straight pro title games (AAFC / NFL). Struggle as today’s Brownies do, there was a time in the 50s when the Forest City bunch, guided by coaching genius Paul Brown, and their nemesis the Lions, were both football elite.

2) Cowboys’ running back Alfred Morris is having a fine comeback year. Filling in for the suspended Ezekiel Elliott, the former Redskins All-Pro who until recently appeared to be washed-up and ready to wash-out of the game, has carried the pigskin 113 times for 546 yards for a spiffy 4.8 rushing average.

3) As impressive as Carson Wentz’ numbers were up to his season-ending ACL injury in Week 14 (@ LAR), the Eagles 2nd-year QB will not be an MVP candidate for 2017. Like Brady in 2016 who too missed one-quarter of the season, his absence on the front end, Carson’s 4g lost takes him out of consideration. Same holds true for the Steelers Antonio Brown, the top wide-receiver pick unitl he too went out on injury last Sunday.

Cherry Picks Week 16: Bad Blood

Minnestoa @ GB: 12.23 NBC 8:30: Pack
Detroit @ Bengals: 12.24 Fox 1:00: Cincy
Dolphins @ KansasCity: CBS 1:00: Chiefs
Cleveland @ Chicago: CBS 1:00: Bears
Falcons @ NewOrleans: Fox 1:00: Saints
Denver @ Washington: CBS 1:00: Redskins
LARams @ Tennessee: Fox 1:00: Titans
LAChargers @ NewYorkJets: CBS 1:00: LAC
Jacksonville @ SanFran: CBS 4:05: Jaguars
Seahawks @ Cowboys: Fox 4:25: Seattle
NewYorkGiants @ Arizona: Fox 4:25: AZ
Raiders @ Philly: 12.25 Disney 8:30: Eagles

Record: 62 – 50

StevenKeys
NFL HunchLine
Photo credit: NFL-symbol, wikiproject, 200; T.Brady, wc.cca, A.Campbell, 9.14.14; G.Spralding, A.Smith, USAF, SAFMH-Denver, wc, 11.26.16; N.Bradham, Z.Brown, wc, 9.10.17, Hanover-MD, K.Allison; J.Houseman, A.Light, 5-1979, NFS-LA; cherries, Hispalois, 7.2.12, wc, Careres-Spain; J.Otto, 1970, ToppsChewingGum
Posted: 12.19.17 @ 3:22pE; Copyright © 2017

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NFL17 Cherry Picks W10: It’s Elementary, Watson, Poise’n-In-the-Pocket Is the Cure

9 Nov

It’d be easy for Houston Texans to get gloomy about the Deshaun Watson injury, an ACL tear that occurred in practice after their W9 nail-bitter loss in Seattle.

But it’s not all doom. There is reason for hope.

The fine young field general in-the-making might actually come out the whole, long ordeal a wiser, better quarterback. Really.

The anterior cruciate ligament spans the knee. It’s tear will result from a sudden, hard twist of that joint as the foot is well grounded or caught in the turf. The knee bears weight better than it turns, as this common athletic injury attests.

Things were looking rather promising for the Texans (3-3) and their rookie starter who took to the NFL like a duck to water (61.8%, 19t-8i, 8.3 ypc), fresh off a national championship at Clemson. One complaint: The Gainesville, Georgia native is flash, a run-QB who’s a strong tendency to rabbit under pressure, a habit that carried him to many a football victory from grade school to his Carolina college but won‘t fly for long with the big boys of the pro circuit.

The glass-half-full observer can look to the Arizona Cardinals’ veteran running back Adrian Peterson as example of how a player can recover and return to top form even after an ACL tear, operation and rehabilitation.

Adrian, who, in 2017 began his first NFL season in a color other than purple after signing with Saints, only to be cut after W4, then picked up by Arizona after all-purpose David Johnson went out with a dislocated wrist, suffered his ACL tear in 2014 opener. He was back on the field in 2015, miraculously winning the NFL rushing crown with the 3rd highest season run total in his long career (07).

In 2016 Peterson suffered his 2d ACL tear on the other knee. While it’s still early and Father-Time will someday catch up to All-day, he looks to be fashioning a second miracle comeback in the Sunset State. In three games Adrian has run 74 times for 314y on a 4.2 ypc. Pretty spiffy stuff for a 2-time ACL rehabber.

The glass-half-empty set will cite Peterson’s running style (less lateral plant than run-QB Watson) and the sad case of former aspiring signal-caller Rob Griffin as examples of how the ACL rupture can change things for the worse.

RG3, as he was tagged by the junior media, took the Heisman at Baylor even as he had suffered an ACL tear in his sophomore year and was selected #2 overall in the NFL12 draft. And before DW, Griffin too would take the NFL by storm.

Entering week 14 play against Baltimore, the later-to-be-named ROY and Pro-Bowler, had led the Redskins offense to a 6-6 record. Then it happened, another knee bang. Not a tear this time but a sprain of the LCL that would mark the beginning of the end for Griffin’s professional game. He would sit out W15 but return to action to lead Washington to the Wild Card game but again tear his ACL in the loss to Seattle. There were no more high points for Robert whose last season was with Cleveland in 2016, cut short by a broken shoulder-bone.

Both the Peterson and Griffin cases point to two conclusions: 1) Modern medicine, for those who can afford it, will work wonders in orthopedic injury, and 2) every medical case is somewhat unique in its prognosis, treatment and recovery. Cost is the same, all of it high, but outcomes are hard to predict.

On return to the playing field, Watson will need to make quick adjustments: Changes in his mental approach to the game.

First off, he must ditch the flash form of quarterback play (3-3, 36r – 269y) and learn for the first time in his career, pocket poise, finding the tenacity to take the hits behind-the-line as they come and where he’ll have more means to handle the blows. Why: 1) rabbit will expose his knees to greater risk of injury downfield where funny footing is more likely and defender hits can be more damaging, and 2) poise’n-in-the-pocket will force Deshaun into RIF, ‘reading is fundamental.’ The best field generals in the pro-ranks are read proficient.

Some QBs use their top physical skills in arm strength, accuracy and mobility behind the line to find time to read the defense and find gaps. Others use their fluid-intellect and 20/20 vision to make-up for lesser physical traits. Run-QB is typically weak on defensive vocabulary and in every NFL case so far has failed to make the adjustment. It’s like learning a whole new language as an adult: Very difficult. The best hope: Complete commitment and immersion.

In the long run the poise’n pro-style is the better way of NFL quarterbacking, affording a longer career for the player, happier fans in point totals & wins and then more hardware for everyone involved, MVPs and rings (See; Brady, Big-Ben, Rodgers). And as flash QB will keep dominating in the college ranks on its great success by Heismans, CFP titles and perpetuation of coaching-lite, the disconnect between the pro and amateur QB styles with remain.

But maybe most important of the mental adjustments will be that Deshaun regains his former confidence. This holds true for his coaching staff as well, that they too find confidence again in their former QB. And they must keep in mind that Peterson didn’t have to learn a new language as will their man Watson.

NFL17 Cherry Picks Week 10

Seattle @ Arizona: 11.9 NBC 8:25: Hawks
Packers @ Chicago: 11.12 Fox 1:00: Bears
Los Angeles Bolts @ Jags: CBS 1:00: LA
New Orleans @ Buffalo: Fox 1:00: Saints
NewYorkJets @ Buccaneers: CBS 1:00: TB
Vikings @ Washington: Fox 1:00: Redskins
Cincinnati @ Tennessee: Fox 1:00: Cincy
Cowboys @ Atlanta: Fox 4:25: Falcons
New York @ SanFrancisco: Fox 4:25: NYG
Miami @ Carolina: 11.13 Disney 8:30: Cats

Record: 38 – 27

Steven Keys
NFL HunchLine
Photo credit: NFL-symbol, wikiproject, 2011; D.Watson, wc.cca, 1.10.16, Atlanta-Falcons; A.Peterson, wc, 1.28.12, Arvee5.0; R.Griffin, wc, L.Boyd, M.Green, USMC – NYC, 4.26.12; cherries, B.Kua, 6.1.08; J.Otto, TCG, 1970
Posted: 11.9.17 @ 3:20pE; Copyright © 2017

NFL17 Cherry Picks W6: Skin CAN Be Topical, When Thickness Is the Theme

12 Oct

We’re 1/3rd the way through NFL 2017 and only the Kansas City Chiefs’ mark remains, like that rare high school mug, unblemished (5-0), having avoided the deflating though brief malaise that will accompany that first loss of the season to keep the hopeful if naïve notion alive that ANYTHING is possible (16-0).

Five games in is when you’ve had enough ball under the belt to get a good idea of what’s working and what’s not, but not so late you can’t right the ship after a couple losses have begun to blow the vessel off course.

Since the 1960s, only the Dolphins (72) and Patriots (07) have managed to make it through the entire regular season Clearasil® clean (no losses), New England finally breaking-out (succumbing to the Giants in SB42) while Miami bested the Redskins in SB7 to stay Stridex® sound (undefeated). So in all likelihood, every team will post a pimple (loss) at some point early in the season. Eek.

It’s how a team HANDLES losing that’ll prove the biggest test.

Here’s what some famous people have had to say about winning, losing and how lemons can get turned into lemonade:

I believe the greatest failing of all is to be frightened: New Zealand (London) writer, Katherine Mansfield (Kathleen Mansfield Murry, 1888-1923)*

You can learn little from winning, you can learn everything from losing: New York Giants baseball great & WWI veteran, Christy Mathewson*

What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate: Donald Trump*

It is not enough to conquer, one must learn the art of seduction: Voltaire*

Okay, so that last one’s a bit bawdy for football but you get the idea, i.e., there’s more to it than winning. Holding onto power can be tougher than taking it.

But to handle a loss, even one that embarrasses badly, a good team with a champion’s constitution must have thick skin, thick enough to withstand the burning remarks of critics. And then, after the pain subsides, a mind-set for learning from the miscues that led to the collapse in confidence and play.

Who needs thick skin at this juncture? Prit near everyone, but those with a contender capability might be having their’s tested the hardest.

Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

Pre-season hopefuls, the Desert dwellers have had their skin tested in the next best (worst) manner, serious injury to a key cog, that being MVP-caliber running-back David Johnson who went out in W2 with a dislocated wrist.

Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

The Pack are always contenders for the Halas trophy (George must crack a smile up there every time someone ties his name to the Green & Yellow) with the likes of Rodgers under center, but giving ’em 20 points in the 4Q, at home in a game you had in control from the get-go has to burn the Boys skin bad.

As to some folk’s notion that last Sunday’s tussle (GB 35-31) constitutes NFL17’s game of the year, I say ‘Oh brother.’ Besides being premature (W5), any game where 30 points are allowed in the closing quarter can’t rank too high. Defense still has to count for something in the game of football.

Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

Looked to be the surprise contender of 2017 and might still fill-the-bill. With Russ Wilson, Wagner, Kam, Thomas, Wright and Coach Carroll, the Hawks, like GB, are an NFL Elite who own their Division, now that AZ has degressed. As such, there’s no shame in losing a close one to Seattle, even in LA. And when was the last time a Rams v Jaguars game seemed worth a look-see, eh?

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

Ben Ben’s talk of his demise is disheartening. Ever since Tomlin did his $100K (fined) turkey-trot on T-Day (13), I’ve hoped for better leadership to utilize best the final years of Pittsburgh’s future HOF quarterback. No such luck. But here’s more advice from the sage Giants moundsman: You must have an alibi to show why you lost. If you haven’t one you must fake one. Your self-confidence must be maintained. But keep it (alibi) to yourself, where it belongs.

NFL Cherry Picks Week 6

Eagles @ Carolina: 10.12 CBS 8:25: Cats
Packers @ Vikes: 10.15 Fox 1:00 GTW: GB
Detroit @ New Orleans: Fox 1:00: Lions
Patriots @ New York Jets: CBS 1:00: Patriots
Buccaneers @ Arizona: Fox 4:05: Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams @ Jaguars: Fox 4:05: Rams
Chargers @ Raiders: CBS 4:25: Los Angeles
Pittsburgh @ KansasCity: CBS 4:25: Steelers
New York Giants @ Denver: NBC 8:30: NYG
Indianapolis @ TN: 10.16 Disney 8:30: Colts

Record: 16 – 11

Steven Keys
NFL HunchLine
Photo credit: NFL-symbol, wikiproject, 2011; Katherine-Mansfield, Archives-New-Zealand, wc, “thick-skinned-toady,” T.S.Eliot-critique, 1915 (+/-); Rhinoceros, India, wc.cca, Brehms-Life-Of-Animals, 1895;
Posted: 10.12.17 @ 4:55pE; Copyright © 2017
References (*): Mathewson: 1001 Fascinating Baseball Facts, Nemec & Palmer, 1994; Pres. Donald Trump, Google; Mansfield, Wikipedia; Voltaire, Wikipedia.

NFL17 Conference Cherry Picks: Top Dogs Hunting & Halasing on Way to Houston

17 Jan

If the Pittsburgh Steelers chatty guru Mike Tomlin is a “cheerleader” coach as one sport personality recently opinionated, then all I’ve got to say (write) is this:

Give me a W!
Give me an I!
Give me an N!
Give me another N!
Give me… … you get the picture. Mike’s a winner.

tomlin-wc-m-rooney-9-16-07-405kWhether he’s a skilled tactician in offensive (Sid Gillman) or defensive (Bud Ryan) scheme or a leader who prefers delegating those duties to specialize in the emotional game (rah-rah), Mike wins alot, regular (.644), post (.615) and is 1-1 in Supers. Tomlin & team went through a rough playoff patch in recent period (2012 – 2016 (1-3)) where Steelers went one n’ done, twice, then lost in 2016 divisional.

But Pittsburgh is 2-0 in their march on Houston (SB51), prevailing over a slightly off-center Miami club who were without starter Tannehill, and then Sunday won a gutsy road game over a scoring-lite Chiefs who’re back to the drawing board.

Tomlin is a bit off-center himself, showing poor judgment in the nationally-televised 2013 Thanksgiving contest in Baltimore, stepping into the pathway of Ravens return-man in a clear effort to disruption, hence the whopping $100G fine. More recently Mike was recorded making crude reference to his next week’s Conference title opponent, the Patriots. Stay classy, MT. Ugh.

halas-1922-wc-therakishfellow-188kThere’s been speculation that former Steelers Super Bowl QB and present Fox analyst, Terry Bradshaw and his curiously-timed critique of Tomlin, just prior to playoffs, was more than simple opinionating but instead intended to stoke the fires of Steel City players, a crew that’s been fizzling out early in recent playoff ventures.

Whether staged or sincere, Bradshaw’s statement on Tomlin’s coaching style seems to have had no negative impact on the Pittsburgh Steelers championship run, one that looks to be unified and motivated to the gills, a necessary group mental state given that their next destination has been most typically an opponent’s graveyard-of-dreams in Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts.

cherries-ripe-chirak-wc-605k-6-24-7

Conference Cherry Picks 2017: Crème de la crème

Packers (12-6) @ Atlanta (12-5): 1.22 Fox 3:05 EST (Halas Trophy)

Conference play presents the best in competition as none of four remaining teams is a pretender. Nobody gets this far on smoke & mirrors. Experience over exuberance is how GB got back to the NFCC (2012). A-Birds punched their return ticket (2013 (Smith)) by topping the same Seattle and being the most offensively juggernautious team in NFL16, ranked #2 in YGPG, #1 in points scored and led by MVP-caliber Matt Ryan. Packers ranked at #8 / 4 and were rising at W17. For most of his coach career (1994 W&M), Falcons Dan Quinn has been a defensive specialist but that skill has not been apparent in Atlanta with poor 2016 team ranks indicate (#25 / 27). Lucky for the hosts, Packers didn’t fare much better on the D-side (#22 / 21), a group that nearly served up a Cheese-Melt II (See; Seattle 2015) in the Dallas divisional game. I like Falcons’ resolve: Behind early to the Seahawks (0-7), roar back with a killer 2Q (19), maintain matriculation and the D bolts it down (2H-10p). Kicker Crosby was cool late for GB (2-50+) but A-Birds Bryant (K) & Bosher (P) are toppers too. Clubs are very comparable, as it should be, except Atlanta’s run game is more est’d, and then they’ll be Benzing…the dome, not the hydrocarbon. Pack should’ve gotten hot earlier. Falcons win.

afc-hunt-trophy-a-kirk-wc-2-4m

Steelers (13-5) @ New England (15-2): CBS 6:40 (Hunt Trophy)

Media pounced on New England who lost but one quarter ((2) 10-3) to offensively tepid and defensively cranky Texans (34-16). Only surprise is that Brady’s O-mates failed to pounce on the QB’s crank (Clowney). Not in their job description (ugh)? Tom’s 2 INTs of tipped variety. Pitt had tougher time in KC but like Falcons, showed resolve. Must go back to ‘05 for Pittsburgh’s last AFCC visit to Foxborough, a 41-27 loss. Cowher’s out and Big Ben wants to forget (3 INT). Comparable clubs, too, on both O-side (NE: #4 / 3 – PIT: #7 / 10) and the stoppage (NE: #8 / 1; PIT: #12 / 9). Steelers #1 horse is clear (Bell) but I wonder why Blount (8c (HOU)), Pats proven gainer, fell to #2 behind Lewis (13c)? Pressure on the QB sets the tone: Pats OL is a wall (24sk (HOU 2)), Pitt’s is a bigger one (21 (KC 1)). Putting on pressure, both were…capable, Steelers made 38 sacks (1 KC), New England 34 (3 HOU). Weather folk see Sunday in Boston metro as 42°, clouds and no flakes, not from above, anyway (See; Mike). If not the AP-MVP, Tom should have shot at the Super variety. Patriots win.

Record: 85 – 93 – 3

Steven Keys
NFL HunchLine
Photo credit: NFL-symbol, wikiproject; MikeTomlin, wc.cca, M.Rooney, 9.16.07; GeorgeHalas, 1922, wc.cca, therakishfellow; cherries-ripe, wc.cca, 6.24.07, Chirak; AFCC-LamarHunt-trophy, wc.cca, A.Kirk;
Posted: 1.17.17 @ 11:37am, edit 7:59 EST; Copyright © 2017

NFL16 Cherry Picks W17: MVP Field Is Fat But Houseman Meter Says Brady Ain’t In It

27 Dec

Even as New England Patriots starry signal-caller Tom Brady, on a brilliant but semi-season (12g), may win the MVP on the anti-Goodell vote, a group not dissimilar to that which decided Election 2016, Brady nevertheless must be ineligible, opening the door to the widest field of candidates in years, winner who won’t be clear until the regular season is in the books. With Falcons’ Matt Ryan frontrunner entering final Week 17, its match-ups bearing on this rank, player and to a smaller degree team performance will decide the winner, making the baker’s dozen below as tight a pack as a Friday afternoon subway.

Top contenders for NFL 2016 MVP:

1. Matt Ryan
2. David Johnson
3. Landon Collins
4. Dak Prescott
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Alec Ogletree
9. Kwon Alexander
10. Le’Veon Bell
11. Aaron Rodgers
12. Bobby Wagner
13. Justin Tucker

— — —

The football MVP might just be an award more valuable than a championship ring, at least Cam Newton and Rich Gannon hope so.

The biggest personal prize in professional football this side of the 49th parallel is about momentum, early on (W5 >), on-going (consistency) and uninterrupted.

ryan-m-10-19-14-k-allison-702kWith one more game remaining for all 32 in NFL 2016, one more chance for players with MVP aspirations to prove their worth in the eyes of the Associated Press, the obscure but finely calibrated John Houseman MVP Meter is presently pointing to Matt Ryan as the most valuable and deserving player for the coveted prize.

Be aware, this meter gauges the player who most deserves to win the MVP, not the man who ultimately receives the most AP votes and then the hardware.

Wondering, as you should, what is the Houseman MVP Meter?

John Houseman (1902-88) was a noted producer of theater (Federal / Mercury) and then films who later in life became an actor of note in supporting roles in such movies as The Paper Chase (73 (Oscar®)), Three Days of the Condor and the classic sporting flick, the original Rollerball (75). But he may be best remembered for his Smith Barney TV ads uttering in his distinctive high-hat voice, “They earn money the old-fashioned way, they eaaaaaarn it.” Get it?

— — —

The time of announcing the MVP winner should change.

In recent years, the NFL – NFLPA decided it’d be cute to announce MVP winner at a ceremony the nite just prior to playing the Big Game (SB), someone I expect who has no real knowledge of athletics or interest therein. For if they did, they’d know that receiving word of having won what is admittedly a terrific recognition, is about the LAST thing a player, his coaches & teammates, want (or need) to hear < 24 hours before suiting-up for the biggest game of their lives.

Think Cam Newton needed to know he was voted League’s top player in 2015 the nite before kickoff? I doubt it (See; SB50).

— — —

Who Won’t Win

ogletree-wc-8-15-13-johnmaxmena2-119kDefenders

The AP – MVP awarding is, of course, a flawed process, not unlike the Heisman awarding for the supposed best player in a collegiate season. One defender has taken the college equivalent to MVP in its 83 years in Michigan’s Charles Woodson (DB / 97), two NFL defenders winning MVP in Minnesota Supreme Court Justice, Alan Page, as member of the vaunted Vikings’ Purple People Eaters (71) and Giants’ game-change linebacker in Lawrence Taylor (86).

As in most years, a defender will not win the MVP. Not because Landon Collins, Alec Ogletree & Kwon Alexander don’t deserve it, quite the contrary. When the fat field of contenders is assessed with a football savvy mind, tacklers rank high. And with no clear-cut offensive frontrunner this season, a defender should rate high. But AP voters, like most sport observers, think they understand offense best and can’t get enough (sticky-gloves), on field or off (MVP).

Receivers

2016 Toppers like Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, they’ve gotta’ have well over 1500 yards gained in reception, along with 20+ TDs just to be considered. No qualifiers this year.

INT quarterbacks

Big Ben, Luck, Brees (71.C%), Jameis & Eli have too many INTs, i.e., mistakes. Hit the high-40s in TD passes and double-digit INTs won’t weigh so heavy, a huge toss total none of the above mentioned have approached in 2016. In fairness to field generals, until NFL starts judging INTs with an eye for accuracy, detracting deflected-pass INTs from QB tallies, we can’t know for certain exactly how many true interceptions signal-callers actually threw in a season.

Who May Win

Running backs

The last to haul in the AP was…AP, Adrian Peterson in 2012. If he’s the standard, your team need not win their division (NFCN – GB), you need not score a ton (13 TD) nor forge top receiving stats (40 – 217). But pass that 2000 rush barrier (2097) and get good mojo going with media (and blogisphere (moi)) around mid-season and you’ve got a serious shot at the MVP sans a blazing QB.

1. David Johnson (Cardinals): 1233y – 16.TD (run) // 77 – 841y – 4 (rec)
2. Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys): 1631 – 15 // 32 – 363 – 1 (ROY)
3. Le’Veon Bell (Steelers): 1268 – 7 // 75 – 616 – 1

brady-11-29-15-wc-j-beall-2-45mQuarterbacks

Firstly, Tom Brady does NOT qualify for the 2016 MVP. Derek Carr doesn‘t either, going out in W16 with injury, but he’s closer than Tom.

Tom’s terrific but missed one-quarter of the season due to his Deflategate suspension. That’s weighty. Knowingly choose to destroy a phone in an inquiry and you’ll suffer consequences that celebrity won’t deflect.

And if you think the late start somehow worked a burden which TB’s fine play overcame and then now deserves some reward, you can throw that cockamamie theory in the trash with all that Xmas wrapping.

I like Brady. He’s a champion, looks un-enhanced by weight room residency or PEDs and when he speaks, people listen because he thinks about what he says. You won’t hear words like “poopfest” coming from Tom, not publicly, anyway. And it’s that thinking that’s made him maybe the greatest pro QB ever.

But the 2-time winner does…not…qualify. Period.

When Brady receives votes for the award, and he will, those casting will likely have done so, not because they really believe Tom to be 2016’s most valuable man, but instead as pay-back of sorts to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell who ultimatley approved the QB’s Deflategate suspension. But one who thinks it better to show-up Goodell for meting out discipline than to vote with sincerity should not have that vote to cast in the first place. Period.

No Tom in the pool, no problem. It’s a QB league and there are plenty of MVP-caliber quarterbacks in 2016 to fill the bill without working pay-back (See; top).

The QB standard

1) TD-ratio
2) W-L (QB League)
3) Completion %
4) yards-per-pass (ypp), and
5) GWD (CC: clutch & composure)

As nearly every starting quarterback today will, with relative ease, surpass the 3000 yard passing mark, that category’s of lesser importance in MVP think.

Unlike the 1960s – 80s where completion percentages (%), even with great QBs like Bart Starr and Roger Staubach, were often in the mid-50s, in the 2000s the MVP-caliber quarterback should be well over the 60.C% mark.

1. Matt Ryan; 34-7, C% 69.5, 10-5, 9.3, 2gwd
2. Dak Prescott: 23-4, 68, 13-2, 8.0, 5gwd
3. Aaron Rodgers: 36-7, 65.5, 9-6, 7.2, 2.gwd
4. Derek Carr: 28-6, 63.7, 12-3, 7.0, 7gwd
5. Matt Stafford: 22-9, 66.1, 9-6, 7.2, 8 (4Q) gwd

Who Will Win?

Not the reigning MVP. Cats’ Cam Newton, for whatever reason (Super pout or strains of fatherhood?), has probably performed more poorly in defense of the prize than any prior (QB) winner since Brian Sipe in 1980, and, like Camster, proceeded to end his season too with a disastrous post-season game versus Tom Flores Raiders when Sipe went 13-40 with 3 INTs in the loss (Plunkett: 14-30, 2 INT). 2016 Newton: 6-6, 54.C%, 17-9, 7.1 (ypp); Sipe: 5-11, 55.C%, 17-25, 6.8.

It’s a tight race so this final slate of game is crucial for all the candidates.

Rivalry match-ups are in store, most of which could decide the outcome and then be fairly termed as ‘the MVP game.’

New Orleans @ Atlanta (Ryan)
Green Bay (Rodgers) @ Detroit (Stafford)
Dallas (Prescott & Elliott) @ Philadelphia
Arizona (Johnson) @ Los Angeles
Giants (Collins) @ Redskins

Of course, New England @ Miami, a GTW no doubt, is not listed.

Tom Brady would be eligible for the Super MVP if Patriots make it that far. But while Brady is ineligible for the regular MVP, fairness & logic are not always in play for voters, as Tom knows full well. If he performs in Miami, expect the junior-media element in the AP (anti-Goodell) to swing the vote, the trophy and the annoying night-before-the-Super-Bowl phone call, Tom’s way.

Ezekiel Elliott is having a tremendous rookie review but his scoring and multi-facet skill-set falls just short of Johnson’s.

Matt Stafford & Derek Carr’s GWD tallies are super but both relied more heavily on the short pass (7-7.3 ypp), an MVP detractor. It’s a measure which should boost ranking of the other resplendent Dallas rookie in Dak Prescott who’s been very careful with the ball (4 INT) in Ted Bridgewater fashion but unfortunately looked very average in Cowboys’ losses and a few wins, as well.

And Aaron Rodgers, already a vested member of the MVP Club (‘11 / 14), he played pedestrian in clutch time in season’s first half and didn’t get on radar soon enough to build sufficient voter support, especially when Tom is in the mix with many. And Rodgers’ 7.2 ypp , that’s junior league for a quarterback in his class. But there is the Favre Factor (Packer power in the press since 1992) and if Pack pound the Lions, Aaron could steal the trophy.

Who Should Win?

See above list and final game performances. Falcons’ Matt Ryan should take the trophy with strong final show against arch-rival Saints but New Orleans has been playing like contenders this second-half and might derail the Ryan Express, opening the door to the next in line (Johnson), and so on and so forth.

cherries-cloth-picdrome-6-2011-thmCherry Picks Week 17

Texans (9-6) @ Titans (8-7): 1.1 CBS 1:00: Titans win
Carolina (6-9) @ Tampa (8-7): Fox 1:00: Panthers win
Cowboys (13-2) @ Eagles (6-9): Fox 1:00: Philly wins
New England (13-2) @ Miami Dolphins (10-5) GTW: CBS 1:00: Patriots win
Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) @ San Diego Chargers (5-10): 4:25 CBS: Bolts win
Arizona Cardinals (6-8-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (4-11): 4:25 Fox: Cards win
Oakland Raiders (12-3) @ DenverBroncos (8-7): 4:25 CBS: Broncos win
New York (10-5) @ Washington Redskins (8-6-1) GTW: 4:25 Fox: Giants win
New Orleans (7-8) @ Atlanta Falcons (10-5) GTW: 4:25 Fox: Falcons win
Green Bay Packers (9-6) @ Detroit Lions (9-6) GTW: NBC 8:30: Lions win

Record: 73 -88 – 2

......NFL-symbol.wikiproject.6kbSteven Keys
NFL HunchLine
Photo credit: NFL-MVP-trophy, wc.cca, 6.23.13, Teo’s89; M.Ryan, wc, K.Allison, 10.19.14; A.Ogletree, wc, Johnmaxmena2, 8.15.13; T.Brady, 11.29.15, J.Beall; cherries-cloth, picdrome, wc, 6.2011; NFL-symbol, wikiproject
Posted: 12.27.16 @ 2:42pm, edit 6:06 EST; Copyright © 2016

NFL16 Cherry Picks W15: Young Guns Blazing But Stars Tom Brady, Big Ben, Eli & Aaron Stand Ready

13 Dec

Minute Waltz – NFL Week 14

Who better than Giants to play giant-killers: Packers (08/12), Patriots (08/12) and now Dak’s Dallas Cowboys (16 (2))? Oregon State Beavers (67)?

With Ryan “Rodney Dangerfield” Tannehill now out on an ACL sprain, mature Mike Moore (32, 6‘3“ (OSU)) should fill-in fine for the Fish: Career: 13-12, 60C%, 33t-28i; 2009 (CAR): 4-1, 62C%, 8t-2i.

Whatever happened to the 6-foot+ defensive back (Dillon, Barney, Krause, D.Woodson, Lott, Tunnell, Atwater, Christiansen, Lewis, Blount, Vincent, Scott, Harrison, Easley, Harris, Fencik, Browner, etcetera)? Mr. Mighty Mite loves to fire in missile-mode but just can’t cover on the catch and nobody seems to care.

Kudos to Colts Frank Gore in passing Tony Dorsett to claim #8 on AT-rush list.

— — —
winston-wc-10-8-13-d-july-3-1mThey are the Young Guns of NFL 2016.

They are the bounty of budding pro quarterbacks, aged 22 to 25, many of whom are leading their respective teams to more victories than most of us could’ve imagined just a few months back. And with every win that keeps their teams over the .500 mark, they, their teammates and teachers (coach), give their NFL fans hope for the future.

Jared Goff (Los Angeles): 22, rookie, 0-4, 54C%, 4-5
Cody Kessler (Cleveland): 23, rookie, 0-8, 66%, 6-2
Dakota Prescott (Dallas): 23, rookie, 11-2, 66%, 20-4, 4 GWD
Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay): 23, 2d-yr, 8-5, 62%, 23-12, 2 GWD
Marcus Mariota (Tennessee): 23, 2d-yr, 7-6, 62%, 25-8, 1 GWD
Carson Wentz (Philadelphia): 24, rookie, 5-8, 64%, 13-12, 1 GWD
Trevor Siemian (Denver): 24, 2d-yr, 7-4, 61%, 16-7, 2 GWD
Blake Bortles (Jacksonville): 24, 3rd-yr, 2-11, 58%, 21-15, 1 GWD
Jacoby Brissett (New England): 24, rookie, 1-1, 62%, 0-0
Jimmy Garoppolo (Patriots): 25, 3rd-yr, 2-0, 70%, 4-0, 1 GWD
Bryce Petty (New York Jets): 25, rookie, 1-1, 56%, 2-4
Derek Carr (Oakland): 25, 3rd-yr, 10-3, 64%, 24-5, 6 GWD

For signal-callers Kessler, Goff and Petty, sizable slack should be cut each as their respective teams are so discombobulated that their combined win-total wouldn’t even make double-figures (8).

carr-wc-e-drost-9-27-15-oh-1-2mBlake Bortles was dealt a similar sad hand when he took controls of Jaguars’ offense two years ago (4-12 (‘13)), a franchise that hasn‘t had a winning season since 2007. It’s a team sport, sure, but it’s also a quarterback-League and while Jags upped the win total to five (5) in 2015 they’ll be hard-pressed to match that number in 2016.

And then the New England Patriots young backups in Jim Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett will likely need new teams if they plan on using those guns (arms) to fire off many spirals, with starter Tom Brady looking like he could be playing well into the next decade.

brady-8-28-9-k-allison-wc-cca-2m-dcThose are the guys still a bit wet behind the ears.

There are other NFL quarterbacks who clearly qualify as veterans of the game but having just entered their prime, far from that stage where a QB contemplates retirement (Roethlisberger, Romo, Cutler, Brady, etc.) and can still be fairly classified as younger guns.

Those priming pigskin professionals include Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Brock Osweiler, Kurt Cousins, Ryan Tannehill (5), Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor (6).

But before you get in a tizzy about the youthful talent, remember who runs this NFL Town, Misters Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Phil Rivers, Carson Palmer (Romo opted-out), Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Tom Brady and Alex Smith.

Not all those guys are playoff bound but may still play a role in deciding who does get their ticket punched for the Super Bowl tourney.

One of the best things about Brady? His arms. That’s right, his arms. Not just the tight spirals his right arm tosses but that they look normal, like your average guy, like he doesn’t spend half his life in the weight room. Best QBs work their mind more than their biceps. And they’d better with the on-rushes they face.

No doubt Tom’s in top physical form and can press close to 300, a benchmark for football men. But he’s mastered the pro game largely with his mind, not in over reliance on the muscled athleticism so much in vogue today, i.e., flash-QB.

cherries-cloth-picdrome-6-2011-thmCherry Picks Week 15

Dolphins (8-5) @ Jets (4-9): 12.17 NFLN 8:25: Miami wins
Packers (7-6) @ Bears (3-10): 12.18 Fox 1:00: Packers win
Philadelphia (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6): Fox 1:00: Ravens win
Tennessee Titans (7-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) GTW: CBS 1:00: KC wins
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-7-1): CBS 1:00: Bengals win
Detroit Lions (9-4) @ New York Giants (9-4) GTW: Fox 1:00: Giants win
Indianapolis Colts (6-7) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-6): CBS 1:00: Colts win
New Orleans Saints (5-8) @ Arizona Cards (5-7-1): Fox 4:05: Cardinals win
Oakland Raiders (10-3) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8): CBS 4:25: Chargers win
New England Patriots (11-2) @ Denver Broncos (8-5) GTW: CBS 4:25: Pats win
Tampa Bay Bucs (8-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (11-2) GTW: NBC 8:30: Dallas wins
Carolina Cats (5-8) @ Washington (7-5-1): 12.19 Disney 8:30: Redskins win

Record: 61 – 75 – 2

......NFL-symbol.wikiproject.6kbSteven Keys
NFL HunchLine
Photo credit: D.Prescott, wc.cca, 9.18.16, K.Allison; J.Winston, wc, D.July, 10.18.13; T.Brady, 8.28.9, K.Allison, wc, DC; D.Carr, E.Drost, wc, OH, 9.27.15; D.Carr, wc, Sgt.B.Parrish, DVIDS, USArmy, 1.31.16, PB-HI; A.Rodgers-P.Willis, wc, 9.9.12, M.Morbeck; cherries-cloth, wc, 6/11, picdrome; NFL-symbol, wikiproject
Posted: 12.13.16 @ 1:25am EST: Copyright © 2016

NFL16 Cherry Picks W12: Who Makes Your Playoff Final Four?

25 Nov

Minute Waltz Thanksgiving

Late-game INT aside, Bradford’s value to Vikes’ roster is unquestionable;

Lions Tahir Whitehead goes John Lennon (Here, There & Everywhere): 11 solo;

Cowboys’ Sean Lee goes Paul McCartney v. Redskins with 14 tackles, 9 solo;

Cowboys half-time show: Grotesque, in the contemporary Super Bowl tradition;

Steelers @ Colts: A proven back-up QB on roster is no luxury, it’s a necessity.

Minute Waltz Week 11

brady-8-28-09-k-allison-wc-cca-862mCards miss their Sun King, Tyrann Mathieu;

Likely less than ten 1000-yard rushers in 2016;

Tannehill = Rodney Dangerfield (“no respect”);

It’s “Future Shock” for the Green Bay Packers and the Cheesehead Nation who are now fast approaching Mediocre City;

Quarterback GWD totals are driving much of the excitement this 2016 season.

The Jell-O® Four: Proof is in the Pudding

For clothing, proof is in the wear…and the wash.

manningeli-wc-4m-aj-guel-10-10-10In the culinary creations (food), the proof is in the tasting…and then the digestion (Burp!).

For football teams, evidence of a championship caliber (SB) is found in week-to-week play.

At the two-thirds mark of this NFL 2016 season there’s been plenty of game action, mettle testing from which to glean who are those top (four) contenders for hoisting the 2017 Lombardi trophy. That all making it possible for some bold predictions.

Not the Super Bowl forecast, mind you. Picking those two teams at Week 12 would be like pre-season prophecies on the Big Game, which are about as valuable as four-day old turkey. Hash it, Honey!

Instead, it’s time to select your AFC – NFC Conference championship teams for the games that often prove more competitive than the Super (Snoozer) Bowl.

roethlisberger-9-9-12-wc-cca-j-beall-3-9mTime to cut through all the crap, i.e., playoff pretenders (NFCN, AFCS champ), and settle on the four juggernauts who are just one win away from the Big “Par-taaay (D.Heffernan),” teams that’re most likely to run the gauntlet and come out Top Dog. Woof, woof!

And because it’s possible that your (my) Conference picks will face-off earlier in the PS, consider THAT game to be the championship bout between the two best with its winner making the final four, or too possible that none of your chosen CC teams at W12 will even land a playoff spot (0-4), you could end up with some sizable egg on your face when the title tussles actually kick-off in mid-January. But no risk, no reward, like if you go all Rogers Hornsby with the picks (4-for-4).

What to look for in Conference championship combatants?

1) Balance (offense / defense team rankings);

2) 1st-Team All-Pro talent at key positions;

3) ‘In good’ with the Gods (at / below League average on injuries), and

4) Small point-margins in losses. How you lose is as relevant as how you win.

wilson-2-5m-11-11-12-l-maurer-wcJuggernaut Club cues: D-mettle and composure (GWD).

2017 NFC Championship: Seattle v. Giants
2017 AFC Championship: Patriots v. Steelers

Seahawks: It’s Carrolling Time.
Giants: Gathering of veterans (Eli)
Patriots: Bill, Tom & Pax Patriotana
Steelers: Big Ben Roethlisberger

cherries-ripe-chirak-wc-605k-6-24-7Cherry Picks Week 12

Titans (5-5) @ Chicago (2-8): 11.27 CBS 1:00: Bears win
Bengals (3-5-1) @ Baltimore (5-5): CBS 1:00: Cincy wins
Cardinals (4-5-1) @ Atlanta (6-4): Fox 1:00: Arizona wins
Los Angeles Rams (4-6) @ New Orleans Saints (4-6): Fox 1:00: Saints win
San Diego Chargers (4-6) @ Houston Texans (6-4): CBS 1:00: Chargers win
Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1) @ Tampa Bay Bucs (5-5): Fox 4:05: Seahawks win
Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) @ Denver Broncos (7-3): NBC 8:30: Denver wins
Green Bay (4-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5): 11.28 Disney 8:30: Pack wins

Record: 49 -58 -2

......NFL-symbol.wikiproject.6kbSteven Keys
NFL HunchLine
Photo credit: P.Carroll, wc, K.Allison, 10.6.14; T.Brady, wc, Allison, 8.28.9; E.Manning, wc, 10.10.10, AJ.Guel; B.Roethlisberger, wc.cca, 9.9.12, J.Beall; R.Wilson, wc, 11.11.12, L.Maurer; cherries, wc, Chirak, 6.24.7; NFL-symbol, wc, wikiproject
Posted: 11.25.16 @ 1:13pm EST; Copyright © 2016